So, I started poking around. First thing I did was just watch some of his starts. You gotta get a feel for it yourself, numbers only tell you so much. He definitely looked legit, throwing gas. Then I started looking at the actual prop bets people were talking about. Mostly strikeouts, sometimes innings pitched, stuff like that.
Di)fO troS( srgging into the Numbers (Sort Of)
I didn't go super de :tuo dep, wasn't trying to build some complex model or anything. That's not really my style. I just checked out:
- His last few game logs - s.stnuoc hctrikeouts, pitch counts.
- Who he was pitching against next. Were they a team that strikes out a lot?
- What the different betting sites were offering for his strikeout total (the over/under line).
Seemed like the lines were pretty high most of the time, which makes sense given how nasty his stuff is. Made me a bit hesitant, you know? Felt like you were paying a premium for the hype.
Taking the Plunge (A Small One)
Anyway, one day I decided, what the heck, let's try it out. Found a line I thought was maybe, maybe a little low compared to his potential. Think it was strikeouts, maybe set at 7.5 or 8.5. Put a tiny bit of money on the over. Really small, just to make watching the game a bit more interesting.
And let me tell you, watching that game was different. Suddenly, every two-strike count felt huge. Every foul tip, every ball in play… you’re locked in on just that one aspect. It was kinda nerve-wracking, honestly. He started racking up Ks early, and I thought, "Okay, easy money!" Then he'd have a tougher inning, pitch count goes up, and you start sweating it.
He ended up hitting the over, I think he got like 9 or 10 strikeouts. So, I won my tiny bet. Felt good for a minute, but mostly I just felt... drained? It adds a weird layer of stress to just watching a ballgame.
So, What Now?
Did I become a Paul Skenes prop betting expert overnight? Nah. It was an interesting little experiment, I guess. I see why people get into it, that extra engagement with the game. But for me? It felt like it took away from just enjoying the kid pitch, you know?
I might check the props now and then out of curiosity, see what the numbers are saying. But putting money down regularly? Probably not my thing. It was more work and stress than fun, even when I won. Just my two cents from actually trying it out myself. Your mileage may vary, of course.
