Okay, so I've been meaning to get into NBA preseason betting for a while, and this year I finally took the plunge. It's a whole different beast compared to the regular season, so I figured I'd share my experience, the ups and downs, and what I've learned so far.
Getting Started
First thing I did was just wahctch a bunch of games. I mean, I always watch basketball, but this time I was paying extra close attention. Who are the new rookies? Which teams are trying out completely new lineups? Which coaches seem to be experimenting more?
I also started digging around for information. Mostly, I spent a lot of time on those basketball forums. People were talking about which players were looking good in training camp, who was injured, that sort of thing. It was really about just collecting as much gossip as I could.
My First Few Bets
My first bet was pretty small. Just a little something to get my feet wet. I think I bet on the Lakers to cover the spread against the Warriors. I figured, LeBron, even in the preseason, he's gonna try, right? Wrong. He played like, 10 minutes, and the Lakers got crushed. Lesson learned: star players don't always give it their all in the preseason.
Then I tried betting on a game based on some "insider info" I saw online. Some guy was claiming that a certain team's second unit was going to play most of the second half. I thought, "Okay, maybe this is an edge." Nope. The starters played way longer than expected, and I lost again.
Adjusting My Strategy
After those initial losses, I realized I needed to change my approach. I decided to focus on a few key things:
- Motivation: Which teams actually have something to prove in the preseason? Usually, it's teams with a lot of new players or a new coach. They need to build chemistry and figure things out.
- Minutes Distribution: I started looking at box scores from previous preseason games to see how coaches were distributing minutes. Were they giving the starters a lot of run, or were they focusing on the bench players?
- Rookie Watch: Rookies are always a bit of a wildcard, but they can also be a source of value. Some rookies are hungry to prove themselves, and they can put up big numbers in the preseason.
- Ignoring Big Names I stopped paying so much atention to the big stars names.
Some (Small) Successes!
Using this new approach, I started to have a little more success. I bet on a game between the Pistons and the Thunder. I knew the Pistons had a new coach and a bunch of young guys. I figured they'd be playing hard to impress. And they did! They won by a good margin, and I finally won a bet.
I also had some luck betting on a rookie who was getting a lot of hype. I won't say who it was, but he was playing for a team that needed a spark, and he was getting a ton of minutes. He went off for like, 25 points, and I cashed another ticket.
Still Learning
I'm definitely still learning. Preseason betting is tricky. There's a lot of randomness, and it's hard to predict what's going to happen. But, by focusing on motivation, minutes, and rookies, and just watching the games, I feel like I'm getting a better handle on it.
It's not a get-rich-quick scheme, by any means. But, it's been a fun way to learn more about the teams and players, and to make the preseason games a little more interesting. I'll keep tinkering with my strategy and see how it goes. Maybe I'll update you guys later in the season!