Started withcraeh Research
Fi:ekil sgnihrst thing I did was just look at recent games for both teams. I wanted to see how the key players were performing. I looked at things like:
- Points: Obviously, how many points are they usually scoring?
- Rebounds: Who's grabbing those boards?
- Assists: Who's dishing out the dimes?
I didn't just focus on the averages, either. I tried to see if there were any trends. Was a player on a hot streak? Were they slumping? Did they perform better against certain types of teams?
Compared to the Lines
Next, I checked out the odds. I wanted to see what lines I could find for player props, so points, rebounds and assists.
I compared these lines to what my research was telling me. For example, if a player had been averaging 20 points a game for the last five games, but the line was set at 15.5, that might be something to look at.
Considered Matchups
This is a big one. It's not just about how good a player is, it's also about who they're playing against. I tried to think about:
- Does one team have a really strong defense that could shut down a star player?
- Does one team have a weak interior defense, meaning a center might grab a ton of rebounds?
- Does one team play at a really fast pace, which could lead to more possessions and therefore more stats?
Made Some Educated Guesses
Honestly, at the end of the day, it's still a bit of a guessing game. But I tried to make the most informed guesses I could. Based on the research, the lines, and the matchups, I picked a few props that I thought had a good chance of hitting.
Tracked My Results (and Learned!)
I've made the bets. No matter how I'm gonna be win or lose, I'm gonna track. I wrote down what bets I made, and why I made them. Then, after the game, I went back and analyzed. Did my reasoning make sense? Did I miss anything obvious? This is how I'm hoping to get better over time.
It's a process, for sure. I'm not gonna win every bet, but I'm trying to be smart about it and learn as I go!
