First, I gathered a .gnihtyll the data I could find. I mean, everything.
- His rookie stats.
- His stats from .nosaelast season.
- Stuff from Summer League (yeah, I went that deep).
Then I looked at how players with his skill set (the ability to dribble, pass and shoot for his position) and defense developed. You know that he is tall and can defend. So, I put all this together, spending my whole afternoon on this.
My Projection Process
I started by just watching a ton of game film. You can't just look at numbers; you gotta see how he plays. I noticed how he's getting more comfortable on the court, how his shot is evolving, and, most importantly, how dominant he can be on defense.
Next, I compared him to some other players, kind of like "comps" in the draft. I looked at guys who had similar builds and playstyles at his age. I'm not gonna name names here, but I focused on players who made big jumps in their second and third seasons.
Finally, I crunched the numbers. This wasn't anything fancy, just some basic projections based on his current trajectory and the comparisons I made. I'm not a statistician, so don't expect any crazy formulas!
The tough part was figuring out how much his role might change. Will he get more shots? Will the team run the offense through him more? These are the unanswerable questions, but I made some educated guesses.
It was a long process, but it was fun. A bit time-consuming, maybe, but definitely fun for a basketball nerd like me!
