My Process Kicking Off
First t.od ohing I did, naturally, was check who was actually playing. Saw it was USF against Syracuse. Okay, interesting matchup. Didn't follow either team super closely during the regular season, maybe caught a game or two here and there, but nothing intense. So, I knew I had some homework to do.
Next, I went digging for their records. Basic stuff. How'd they finish? USF seemed like they had a pretty good turnaround year, got themselves bowl eligible which was probably a big deal for them. Syracuse, on the other hand, kinda felt like they limped into the postseason. They made it, sure, but seemed like they lost some steam down the stretch.
Digging a Little Deeper
Records only tell you so much, especially with these bowl games. The real devil's in the details. So, I started looking for news on a few key things:
- Who's actually playing? This is the big one for bowls. Any key guys heading to the NFL draft and sitting out? Anyone jump into the transfer portal? This stuff can completely change a team's outlook from their last regular season game. I spent a fair bit of time searching for injury reports and opt-out lists for both USF and Syracuse. Found some significant news there, especially for Syracuse if memory serves.
- Recent form? Like I noted, how did they look at the end of the year? Was USF playing with confidence? Was Syracuse struggling to move the ball or stop anyone? Momentum, even from weeks ago, can sometimes carry over.
- Coaching situation? Bowl games can happen right in the middle of coaching changes. Was either head coach safe? Any coordinators leaving? Syracuse definitely had some coaching turmoil going on, which never feels like a good sign right before a bowl.
Considering the Intangibles
Then there's the stuff that doesn't show up in a box score. Motivation is huge. For a program like USF, getting to a bowl, especially one relatively close to home like Boca Raton, probably felt like a massive achievement. You figure those guys would be fired up to be there. For a team like Syracuse, coming from a bigger conference, maybe a trip to the Boca Raton Bowl didn't have the same juice? Hard to say for sure, but you gotta factor in the potential "happy to be here" angle.
It reminds me of a few years back, I totally whiffed on a bowl prediction because I ignored this. Picked a big-name school over a smaller conference champ, thinking talent would win out. Nope. The smaller school played like it was their Super Bowl, the big name looked like they were already on vacation. Lesson learned, sort of.
Making the Call
So, after looking at all that – the records, the opt-outs (which seemed to hit Syracuse harder), the coaching situation at Syracuse, and the likely motivation edge for USF playing in their home state – I started leaning pretty heavily one way.
My pick ended up being USF. It just felt like they had more going for them heading into this specific game. They seemed more stable, likely more motivated, and weren't dealing with as many key absences compared to Syracuse. Plus, that turnaround story? You sometimes see teams ride that wave of positive energy right through their bowl game.
That was my process, top to bottom. Just piecing together the info I could find, throwing in a bit of gut feeling based on past bowl season weirdness, and landing on a pick. We'll see how it actually plays out, but I felt pretty okay about the reasoning behind picking USF for this one.
