First thing I did was just sit down and start pulling up info. Didn't get too complicated. Just used my usual browser, searched for game stats, team histories, that sort of stuff. Wanted to see the raw numbers, past performance, how they matched up on paper. I wasn't trying to build some complex model, just wanted to lay things out clearly for myself.
My Process: Spreading it Out
I basically started grabbing data points. Things like:
- Offensive yards per game
- Points scored, points allowed
- Turnover margins
- Maybe some key player stats
- How they performed in previous big games
I didn't use any special software, maybe just jotted stuff down or put it in a simple document side-by-side. The key was seeing it all together, like spreading cards out on a table. Comparing Michigan's defense against Washington's offense, looking at historical trends when they played similar opponents. I also checked how the betting spread itself moved leading up to the game, just out of curiosity. See where the money was supposedly going.
Getting bogged down...Honestly, it got a bit messy. You find tons of different stats online, some sites say one thing, others say another. It’s easy to go down a rabbit hole. Had to remind myself to stick to the basics, use sources I generally trust. Took a bit longer than I thought, sorting through the noise.
What Came Out of It
After fiddling around with the numbers, comparing this and that, did I find some secret insight? Nah, not really. Anyone telling you they have a foolproof system is usually selling something.
But what I did get was a much better personal understanding. Seeing the data laid out, the 'spread' of performance metrics, helped me form my own picture. It wasn't about being right or wrong about the final score or the spread itself. It was about the exercise, the practice of digging in, verifying things for myself. Felt good to cut through the hype and just look at the facts as I could find them. Confirmed some gut feelings I had, questioned others. Always worth doing your own homework, I figure.
