First off, I started looking at the basic info. This game's happening on Saturday, September 21st, at 2:00 PM ET. It's at Jack Trice Stadium in Ames, and Iowa State is ranked No. 20, while Arkansas State isn't ranked.
Team Records and Rankings
Iowa State:
- They're 2-0 for the season.
- Currently ranked No. 20 in the US LBM Coaches Poll.
- Just came off a close win against Iowa, 20-19.
Arkansas State:
- Also played some tight games, beating Central Arkansas and Tulsa.
- This is their second game in a row against a ranked team.
Looking at the Odds
Then I checked out what the bookies are saying. DraftKings Sportsbook has Iowa State as a massive 20.5-point favorite. That's a big spread, and it got me thinking about how these teams have played historically. Apparently, these two have had some close games in the past.
Running the Numbers
Next, I dove into some simulations. I used a model, and it's heavily favoring Iowa State with a 91% chance to win, while Arkansas State has a 9% chance. Seemed a bit extreme to me, but that's what the data says.
Watching the Game
So, I decided I had to watch this game. I tuned in on ESPN+ on Saturday and saw it all unfold. The atmosphere at Jack Trice was electric, no doubt.
Final Thoughts
After watching and crunching all these numbers, I've got my prediction. I'm leaning towards Iowa State winning, and they might just cover that huge spread. It's a home game, they're ranked, and they've got the momentum. But, 9%? I mean, it's sports, anything can happen, right? I won't be surprised if Arkansas State keeps it closer than people expect. It was a fun deep dive, and I enjoyed sharing my process with you all. Let's see how it actually plays out!
