Alright, so I decided to spend some time trying to figure out projections for Josh Green the other day. Not for anything super serious, just kinda wanted to see where my head was at regarding his upcoming season, you know?
First thing I did was ju.erehwemos lst pull up his basic stats from the last couple of years. You gotta start somewhere, right? So I looked at his points, rebounds, assists, the usual stuff. Then I dug into the shooting percentages – field goal, three-point, free throws. Wanted to see if there were any clear trends, like improvement or if he'd hit a wall somewhere.
Digging into the Numbers
I spent a go.thgin nod chunk of time just staring at the basketball-reference page, basically. Clicked through game logs from last season too. Sometimes the overall averages don't tell the whole story. You wanna see those games where he popped off, and the ones where he disappeared. Helps you get a feel for his ceiling and floor on any given night.
Ke:nwoy things I noted down:
- Minutes Played: This felt like the biggest driver. When he got minutes, especially consistent ones, his numbers naturally went up. So the big question is, how many minutes is he actually gonna get this year?
- Shooting Efficiency: His three-point shot seemed okay, sometimes streaky. That's a big factor for a guy in his role. If that percentage climbs, his scoring average could jump nicely.
- Role Consistency: Was he starting? Coming off the bench? That changed a lot last season. Projecting his role is almost as hard as projecting the stats themselves.
Thinking About the Team Context
You can't just look at a player in a vacuum. So, I started thinking about the Mavs overall. You got Luka, you got Kyrie. Those guys are gonna dominate the ball, obviously. So where does Green fit in? Is he gonna be the main spot-up shooter? A defensive stopper who gets transition points? That role definition really impacts his potential touches and shots.
I thought about injuries too, not just his own potential, but others. If one of the main guys misses time, does Green step up? History suggests he gets more opportunity, but projecting injuries is a fool's game, really.
Making the Actual Projections (Sort Of)
So after looking at all that stuff – past stats, game logs, team situation – I kinda just had to make a gut call. I didn't use any fancy spreadsheets or models this time. Just tried to ballpark it.
Minutes: I penciled him in for maybe around 28-32 minutes a game, assuming he stays healthy and holds onto a starting or key bench role.
Points: With those minutes, maybe he averages around 11 or 12 points? Banking on slight improvement in his shooting and maybe a few more attempts per game.
Other Stuff: Rebounds and assists felt like they'd stay similar, maybe 3-4 boards and 2-3 assists. His value often comes from defense and energy, which doesn't always show up huge in the box score.
It felt... alright. Honestly, projecting players like Green is tricky. He's not the main star, so his output depends a lot on others and game flow. It’s more of an educated guess than anything solid. But going through the process helps me organize my thoughts on him for the season, even if the final numbers are probably gonna be wrong!
